CoCiP

Contrail Cirrus Predicition (CoCiP) model evaluation along a flight trajectory.

References

  • Schumann, U. “A Contrail Cirrus Prediction Model.” Geoscientific Model Development 5, no. 3 (May 3, 2012): 543–80. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-543-2012.

  • Schumann, U., B. Mayer, K. Graf, and H. Mannstein. “A Parametric Radiative Forcing Model for Contrail Cirrus.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 7 (July 2012): 1391–1406. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0242.1.

  • Schumann, Ulrich, Robert Baumann, Darrel Baumgardner, Sarah T. Bedka, David P. Duda, Volker Freudenthaler, Jean-Francois Gayet, et al. 2017. “Properties of Individual Contrails: A Compilation of Observations and Some Comparisons.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17 (1): 403–38. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-403-2017.

  • Teoh, Roger, Ulrich Schumann, Arnab Majumdar, and Marc E. J. Stettler. “Mitigating the Climate Forcing of Aircraft Contrails by Small-Scale Diversions and Technology Adoption.” Environmental Science & Technology 54, no. 5 (March 3, 2020): 2941–50. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b05608.

  • Teoh, Roger, Ulrich Schumann, Edward Gryspeerdt, Marc Shapiro, Jarlath Molloy, George Koudis, Christiane Voigt, and Marc E. J. Stettler. 2022. “Aviation Contrail Climate Effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 (16): 10919–35. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022.

  • Teoh, Roger, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Tobias Schripp, Marc Shapiro, Zebediah Engberg, Jarlath Molloy, George Koudis, and Marc E. J. Stettler. 2022. “Targeted Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to Maximize Climate Benefits.” Environmental Science & Technology, November. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c05781.

[1]:

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt

from pycontrails import Flight, MetDataset
from pycontrails.datalib.ecmwf import ERA5
from pycontrails.models.cocip import (
    Cocip,
    flight_waypoint_summary_statistics,
    contrail_flight_summary_statistics,
    natural_cirrus_properties_to_hi_res_grid,
)
from pycontrails.models.humidity_scaling import ConstantHumidityScaling

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (10, 6)

Download meteorology data from ECMWF

This demo uses ERA5 via the Copernicus Data Store (CDS) for met data. This requires account with Copernicus Data Portal and local ~/.cdsapirc file with credentials.

Note this will download ~1 GB of meteorology data to your computer

[2]:

time_bounds = ("2022-03-01 00:00:00", "2022-03-01 23:00:00")
pressure_levels = (300, 250, 200)

[3]:

era5pl = ERA5(
    time=time_bounds,
    variables=Cocip.met_variables + Cocip.optional_met_variables,
    pressure_levels=pressure_levels,
)
era5sl = ERA5(time=time_bounds, variables=Cocip.rad_variables)

[4]:

# download data from ERA5 (or open from cache)
met = era5pl.open_metdataset()
rad = era5sl.open_metdataset()

Load Flight Data

Flight can be loaded from CSV, parquet, or created from a pandas DataFrame

[5]:

# demo synthetic flight
flight_attrs = {
    "flight_id": "test",
    # set constants along flight path
    "true_airspeed": 226.099920796651,  # true airspeed, m/s
    "thrust": 0.22,  # thrust_setting
    "nvpm_ei_n": 1.897462e15,  # non-volatile emissions index
    "aircraft_type": "E190",
    "wingspan": 48,  # m
    "n_engine": 2,
}

# Example flight
df = pd.DataFrame()
df["longitude"] = np.linspace(-25, -40, 100)
df["latitude"] = np.linspace(34, 40, 100)
df["altitude"] = np.linspace(10900, 10900, 100)
df["engine_efficiency"] = np.linspace(0.34, 0.35, 100)
df["fuel_flow"] = np.linspace(2.1, 2.4, 100)  # kg/s
df["aircraft_mass"] = np.linspace(154445, 154345, 100)  # kg
df["time"] = pd.date_range("2022-03-01T00:15:00", "2022-03-01T02:30:00", periods=100)

flight = Flight(df, attrs=flight_attrs)
flight

[5]:
Flight [7 keys x 100 length, 8 attributes]

Attributes
time[2022-03-01 00:15:00, 2022-03-01 02:30:00]
longitude[-40.0, -25.0]
latitude[34.0, 40.0]
altitude[10900.0, 10900.0]
flight_idtest
true_airspeed226.099920796651
thrust0.22
nvpm_ei_n1897462000000000.0
aircraft_typeE190
wingspan48
n_engine2
crsEPSG:4326
longitude latitude altitude engine_efficiency fuel_flow aircraft_mass time
0 -25.000000 34.000000 10900.0 0.340000 2.100000 154445.000000 2022-03-01 00:15:00.000000000
1 -25.151515 34.060606 10900.0 0.340101 2.103030 154443.989899 2022-03-01 00:16:21.818181818
2 -25.303030 34.121212 10900.0 0.340202 2.106061 154442.979798 2022-03-01 00:17:43.636363636
3 -25.454545 34.181818 10900.0 0.340303 2.109091 154441.969697 2022-03-01 00:19:05.454545454
4 -25.606061 34.242424 10900.0 0.340404 2.112121 154440.959596 2022-03-01 00:20:27.272727272
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
95 -39.393939 39.757576 10900.0 0.349596 2.387879 154349.040404 2022-03-01 02:24:32.727272727
96 -39.545455 39.818182 10900.0 0.349697 2.390909 154348.030303 2022-03-01 02:25:54.545454545
97 -39.696970 39.878788 10900.0 0.349798 2.393939 154347.020202 2022-03-01 02:27:16.363636363
98 -39.848485 39.939394 10900.0 0.349899 2.396970 154346.010101 2022-03-01 02:28:38.181818181
99 -40.000000 40.000000 10900.0 0.350000 2.400000 154345.000000 2022-03-01 02:30:00.000000000

100 rows × 7 columns

Run Cocip on a single flight

In this first example, the Flight has aircraft performance (i.e. nvpm_ei_n) hardcoded into the data as constants. This data is assumed to be constant at every flight waypoint.

Caveat

  • When the Cocip model is run on one Flight, the default behavior is to downselect the meteorology to a region surrounding the flight and process the meteorology (i.e. humidity scaling, tau_cirrus) on the smaller domain. The implications of this processing is each instance of a single-flight Cocip model should only be run once.

  • We ignore the warning here about humidity scaling for ECMWF data sources

[6]:

params = {
    "dt_integration": np.timedelta64(10, "m"),
    # The humidity_scaling parameter is only used for ECMWF ERA5 data
    # based on Teoh 2020 and Teoh 2022 - https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2022-169/acp-2022-169.pdf
    # Here we use an example of constantly scaling the humidity value by 0.99
    "humidity_scaling": ConstantHumidityScaling(rhi_adj=0.99),
}
cocip = Cocip(met=met, rad=rad, params=params)

[7]:

output_flight = cocip.eval(source=flight)

Explore Flight Output

The output_flight object holds roughly 50 variables of interest. The energy forcing ef field is a primary model output. Waypoints not producing persistent contrails are assigned an ef value of 0.

[8]:

df = output_flight.dataframe
df.head()

[8]:
waypoint longitude latitude altitude engine_efficiency fuel_flow aircraft_mass time flight_id level ... n_ice_per_m_1 ef contrail_age sdr_mean rsr_mean olr_mean rf_sw_mean rf_lw_mean rf_net_mean cocip
0 0 -25.000000 34.000000 10900.0 0.340000 2.100000 154445.000000 2022-03-01 00:15:00.000000000 test 229.908663 ... 1.211936e+13 0.0 0 days NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.0
1 1 -25.151515 34.060606 10900.0 0.340101 2.103030 154443.989899 2022-03-01 00:16:21.818181818 test 229.908663 ... 1.299153e+13 0.0 0 days NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.0
2 2 -25.303030 34.121212 10900.0 0.340202 2.106061 154442.979798 2022-03-01 00:17:43.636363636 test 229.908663 ... 1.363941e+13 0.0 0 days NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.0
3 3 -25.454545 34.181818 10900.0 0.340303 2.109091 154441.969697 2022-03-01 00:19:05.454545454 test 229.908663 ... 1.410562e+13 0.0 0 days NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.0
4 4 -25.606061 34.242424 10900.0 0.340404 2.112121 154440.959596 2022-03-01 00:20:27.272727272 test 229.908663 ... 1.438106e+13 0.0 0 days NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.0

5 rows × 45 columns

[9]:

df.plot.scatter(
    x="longitude",
    y="latitude",
    c="ef",
    cmap="coolwarm",
    vmin=-1e13,
    vmax=1e13,
    title="EF generated by flight waypoint",
);
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_14_0.png 
[10]:

df.plot.scatter(
    x="longitude",
    y="latitude",
    c="rhi_1",
    cmap="magma",
    title="Initial RHi along flight path",
);
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_15_0.png

Explore Contrail Output

[11]:

contrail = cocip.contrail
contrail.head()

[11]:
waypoint flight_id formation_time time age longitude latitude altitude level continuous ... tau_contrail dn_dt_agg dn_dt_turb rf_sw rf_lw rf_net persistent ef timestep age_hours
0 16 test 2022-03-01 00:36:49.090909090 2022-03-01 00:40:00 0 days 00:03:10.909090910 -27.378049 34.922418 10855.165152 231.533890 True ... 0.058053 7.476665e-20 0.000051 0.0 0.555465 0.555465 True 1.099225e+09 2 0.053030
1 17 test 2022-03-01 00:38:10.909090909 2022-03-01 00:40:00 0 days 00:01:49.090909091 -27.548832 35.003469 10855.511035 231.521316 True ... 0.165581 2.538742e-19 0.000077 0.0 1.976229 1.976229 True 9.428853e+08 2 0.030303
2 18 test 2022-03-01 00:39:32.727272727 2022-03-01 00:40:00 0 days 00:00:00 -27.720407 35.084249 10855.340639 231.527510 False ... 0.408836 4.056703e-19 0.000233 0.0 4.600390 4.600390 True 0.000000e+00 2 0.000000
0 17 test 2022-03-01 00:38:10.909090909 2022-03-01 00:50:00 0 days 00:11:49.090909091 -27.401596 34.855488 10855.704079 231.514299 True ... 0.036824 9.873238e-20 0.000026 0.0 0.561865 0.561865 True 7.060254e+09 3 0.196970
1 18 test 2022-03-01 00:39:32.727272727 2022-03-01 00:50:00 0 days 00:10:27.272727273 -27.569577 34.937639 10857.240565 231.458453 True ... 0.047199 2.494850e-19 0.000030 0.0 0.854236 0.854236 True 8.330392e+09 3 0.174242

5 rows × 56 columns

[12]:

ax = plt.axes()

cocip.source.dataframe.plot(
    "longitude",
    "latitude",
    color="k",
    ax=ax,
    label="Flight path",
)
cocip.contrail.plot.scatter(
    "longitude",
    "latitude",
    c="rf_lw",
    cmap="Reds",
    ax=ax,
    label="Contrail LW RF",
)
ax.legend();
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_18_0.png 
[13]:

ax = plt.axes()

cocip.source.dataframe.plot(
    "longitude",
    "latitude",
    color="k",
    ax=ax,
    label="Flight path",
)
cocip.contrail.plot.scatter(
    "longitude",
    "latitude",
    c="ef",
    cmap="coolwarm",
    vmin=-1e12,
    vmax=1e12,
    ax=ax,
    label="Contrail EF",
)
ax.legend();
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_19_0.png

Explore Flight Summary

A curated set of statistics available after a Flight has been run through eval

[14]:

# flight_statistics = cocip.output_flight_statistics()
# flight_statistics

waypoint_summary = flight_waypoint_summary_statistics(cocip.source, cocip.contrail)
flight_summary = contrail_flight_summary_statistics(waypoint_summary)
flight_summary

[14]:
flight_id total_flight_distance_flown total_contrails_formed total_persistent_contrails_formed mean_lifetime_contrail_altitude mean_lifetime_rhi mean_lifetime_n_ice_per_m mean_lifetime_r_ice_vol mean_lifetime_contrail_width mean_lifetime_contrail_depth ... mean_lifetime_tau_cirrus mean_contrail_lifetime max_contrail_lifetime mean_lifetime_rf_sw mean_lifetime_rf_lw mean_lifetime_rf_net total_energy_forcing mean_lifetime_olr mean_lifetime_sdr mean_lifetime_rsr
0 test 1.489373e+06 1.489373e+06 1.489373e+06 10924.967626 1.115407 9.352614e+12 0.000006 15384.89933 535.5604 ... 0.251802 5.364979 10.583333 -0.157952 5.550725 5.392773 2.340121e+15 192.821976 22.198721 9.819747

1 rows × 21 columns

Run Cocip on Multiple Flights

Run multiple Flight inputs on a single set of meteorology.

For this demo, we’ll copy the original flight and tweak its longitude and latitudes values.

[15]:

flights = []
for i in range(10):
    fl = flight.copy()
    fl.attrs.update(flight_id=f"test-{i:02d}")
    fl.update(latitude=flight["latitude"] + i)
    fl.update(longitude=flight["longitude"] + i)
    flights.append(fl)

[16]:

# Visualize the fleet of 10 flights
ax = plt.axes()
for fl in flights:
    fl.plot(ax=ax)
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_25_0.png

Run the Cocip model over a list[Flight] objects

[17]:

cocip = Cocip(
    met=met,
    rad=rad,
    process_emissions=False,
    humidity_scaling=ConstantHumidityScaling(rhi_adj=0.99),
)

# returns list of Flight outputs
output_flights = cocip.eval(source=flights)

[18]:

# print EF for each flight
for fl in output_flights:
    print(f"{fl.attrs['flight_id']}: {np.sum(fl['ef'])}")

test-00: 2121480685044636.5
test-01: 1541994819791262.5
test-02: 1319374480518468.0
test-03: 703275057307035.0
test-04: 637174779003.3167
test-05: 4260062451.204625
test-06: 0.0
test-07: 0.0
test-08: 0.0
test-09: 0.0

[19]:

# Visualize the "ef" of each flight
ax = plt.axes()
for fl in output_flights:
    fl.dataframe.plot.scatter(
        x="longitude",
        y="latitude",
        c="ef",
        cmap="coolwarm",
        vmin=-3e13,
        vmax=3e13,
        title="EF generated by waypoint",
        ax=ax,
        colorbar=False,
    );
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_29_0.png

Use the Poll-Schumann aircraft performance model

First create a Flight that does not have emissions data associated:

[20]:

# demo synthetic flight
flight_attrs = {
    "flight_id": "test-ps-model",
    "aircraft_type": "E195",
}

# Example flight
df = pd.DataFrame()
df["longitude"] = np.linspace(-40, -55, 100)
df["latitude"] = np.linspace(38, 45, 100)
df["altitude"] = np.linspace(10900, 10900, 100)
df["time"] = pd.date_range("2022-03-01T00:15:00", "2022-03-01T02:30:00", periods=100)
fl = Flight(data=df, attrs=flight_attrs)

[21]:

from pycontrails.models.ps_model import PSFlight

[22]:

cocip = Cocip(
    met=met,
    rad=rad,
    humidity_scaling=ConstantHumidityScaling(rhi_adj=0.99),
    aircraft_performance=PSFlight(),
)

output_flight = cocip.eval(source=fl)

[23]:

output_flight.dataframe.plot(x="time", y="nvpm_ei_n");
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_35_0.png

Output contrail cirrus optical depth

Note this is only a preliminary implementation and will be changed in the future

The example below uses the contrail cirrus output from 1 flight, but the df_contrails input can include contrail cirrus from multiple flights.

To run multiple flights, concatenate Cocip.contrail outputs from multiple flights and feed in to grid_cirrus.<> methods as df_contrails. Unique flight_id column will have to be added to the Cocip.contrail output before concatenation.

[24]:

# demo synthetic flight
flight_attrs = {
    "flight_id": "test",
    "true_airspeed": 226.099920796651,  # true airspeed, m/s
    "thrust": 0.22,  # thrust_setting
    "nvpm_ei_n": 1.897462e15,
    "aircraft_type": "E190",
    "wingspan": 48,
    "n_engine": 2,
}

# Example flight
df = pd.DataFrame()
df["longitude"] = np.linspace(-40, -55, 100)
df["latitude"] = np.linspace(38, 45, 100)
df["altitude"] = np.linspace(10900, 10900, 100)
df["engine_efficiency"] = np.linspace(0.34, 0.35, 100)  # ope
df["fuel_flow"] = np.linspace(2.1, 2.4, 100)  # kg/s
df["aircraft_mass"] = np.linspace(154445, 154345, 100)  # kg
df["time"] = pd.date_range("2022-03-01T00:15:00", "2022-03-01T02:30:00", periods=100)
fl = Flight(data=df, attrs=flight_attrs)

[25]:

# run model
cocip = Cocip(
    met=met,
    rad=rad,
    process_emissions=False,
    humidity_scaling=ConstantHumidityScaling(rhi_adj=0.99),
)
output_flight = cocip.eval(source=fl)

[26]:

# get dataframe of contrail waypoints
df_contrails = cocip.contrail
df_contrails["flight_id"] = cocip.source.attrs["flight_id"]

[27]:

w = df_contrails["longitude"].min()
e = df_contrails["longitude"].max()
s = df_contrails["latitude"].min()
n = df_contrails["latitude"].max()
bbox = (w, s, e, n)

met_bbox = MetDataset(met.data.isel(time=[0])).downselect(bbox)

[28]:

ds_cirrus = natural_cirrus_properties_to_hi_res_grid(met_bbox)

/Users/marcshapiro/computing/contrailcirrus/pycontrails/pycontrails/core/met.py:755: UserWarning: Overwriting data in keys `['tau_cirrus']`. Use `.update(...)` to suppress warning.
  warnings.warn(

[29]:

ds_cirrus["cc_natural_cirrus"].data.squeeze().plot(x="longitude", y="latitude");
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_42_0.png 
[30]:

ds_cirrus["tau_cirrus"].data.squeeze().plot(x="longitude", y="latitude");
../_images/notebooks_CoCiP_43_0.png